Top Tips for Probability Analysis

Read on to learn some top tips on how to make sure you are defining and using probability values correctly within a safety or reliability assessment.

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What is Markov Analysis?

Markov analysis is a method of analysis that can be applied to both repairable and non-repairable types of system. The basic output of a Markov analysis is the average time spent by the system in each of its distinct states before the system moves (or makes a transition) into some other distinct state. For example, such a transition or change of state will occur if the system suffers a component failure or if a repair has been carried out. A distinct change in the state of the system will have taken place in both of these cases.

The output from the Markov analysis enables a complete description of the system to be obtained in terms of its reliability, availability and resource utilisation (e.g. use of maintenance teams, spares holdings, buffers, etc). Also different system designs can be explored by comparing their reliability and availability performances as well as the effect of small tweaks to a given design under consideration. Results produced by a Markov analysis can then be used within a cost-benefit analysis to help identify the optimal design choice. Continue reading →

How to get the most from your HAZOP Workshop

Although extremely valuable in terms of identifying potential hazards associated with a plant’s design and operation, HAZOP studies can be time consuming and resource intensive. We have therefore compiled a list of 10 tips to help HAZOP Workshops run more smoothly and efficiently, thereby ensuring that you get maximum value from your HAZOP. Continue reading →

Before starting the actual analysis of a Safety or Reliability Study it is important to be sure that you

1. have fully defined the aims and objectives of the Study
2. are considering all of the design or operational features that will have a significant impact on the results of the analysis.

We have therefore put together a list of ten questions which we hope will help you to address each of these areas. Continue reading →

Wikipedia describes Event tree analysis (ETA) as “a forward, bottom up, logical modeling technique for both success and failure that explores responses through a single initiating event and lays a path for assessing probabilities of the outcomes and overall system analysis”. However, like many techniques, its benefits rely on it being used properly. Continue reading →

It is surprising to most people that there could be anything remotely controversial about statistical analysis. Nevertheless appearances can be deceptive, and a fundamental disagreement exists at the very heart of the subject between so-called Classical (also known as Frequentist) and Bayesian statisticians. Continue reading →